Stock Trader’s Almanac 2022 Summary
Created by Yale Hirsch in 1967, the Stock Trader’s Almanac has delivered money-making insights and strategies to investors for more than six decades. The Almanac originated such important market phenomena as the “January Barometer” and the “Santa Claus Rally” and was instrumental in popularizing other tradable strategies, such as “The Best Six Months Strategy” (commonly known as “Sell in May and Go Away”) and the four-year Presidential Election Cycle.
Mr. Hirsch imparted his knowledge of the stock market to his son, Jeffrey Hirsch. who joined the organization as a market analyst and historian under the mentorship of his father in 1990 and became editor-in-chief some years later. Even since Jeff has carried on his father’s tradition of constantly improving the Stock Trader’s Almanac and has been tireless in his efforts to explain how investors can use the Stock Trader’s Almanac to beat the market.
Jeff regularly appears on major news networks such as CNBC, CNN, and Bloomberg; he is quoted extensively in major newspapers and financial publications, and he is in high demand as a conference speaker. In short, he is the media’s “go-to guy” on all things related to applying the lessons of history to today’s stock market.
The 2022 Stock Trader’s Almanac, the 55th Annual Edition, continues its rich tradition of showing you the cycles, trends, and patterns you need to know in order to trade and/or invest with reduced risk and for maximum profit. Trusted by Barron’s, The Wall Street Journal, the New York Times, and many other respected market authorities, this indispensable guide has helped generations of investors. Order your copy to make smarter, more profitable investment decisions in 2022.
About the Author
JEFFREY HIRSCH is CEO of Hirsch Holdings and Chief Market Strategist at Probabilities Fund Management, LLC. He is the editor-in-chief of the Stock Trader’s Almanac and Almanac Investor eNewsletter and a Yahoo Finance contributor. A 30-year Wall Street veteran, Hirsch regularly appears on CNBC, Bloomberg, and Fox Business.
Stock Trader’s Almanac 2022 Introduction
Excerpt. © Reprinted by permission. All rights reserved.
Once again, we have the honor of introducing the new edition of the Stock Trader’s Almanac. The Almanac provides you with the necessary tools to invest successfully in the twenty-first century.
J.P. Morgan’s classic retort “Stocks will fluctuate” is often quoted with a wink-of-the-eye implication that the only prediction one can make about the stock market is that it will go up, down, or sideways. Many investors agree that no one ever really knows which way the market will move. Nothing could be further from the truth.
We discovered that while stocks do indeed fluctuate, they do so in well-defined, often predictable patterns. These patterns recur too frequently to be the result of chance or coincidence. How else do we explain that since 1950 the Dow has gained 27726.69 points during November through April compared to just 6588.43 May through October? (See page 54.)
The Almanac is a practical investment tool. It alerts you to those little-known market patterns and tendencies on which shrewd professionals enhance profit potential. You will be able to forecast market trends with accuracy and confidence when you use the Almanac to help you understand:
- How our presidential elections affect the economy and the stock market—just as the moon affects the tides. Many investors have made fortunes following the political cycle. You can be sure that money managers who control billions of dollars are also political cycle watchers. Astute people do not ignore a pattern that has been working effectively throughout most of our economic history.
- How the passage of the Twentieth Amendment to the Constitution fathered the January Barometer. This barometer has an outstanding record for predicting the general course of the stock market each year, with only 11 major errors since 1950, for an 84.5% accuracy ratio. (See page 18.)
- Why there is a significant market bias at certain times of the day, week, month and year.
Even if you are an investor who pays scant attention to cycles, indicators, and patterns, your investment survival could hinge on your interpretation of one of the recurring patterns found within these pages. One of the most intriguing and important patterns is the symbiotic relationship between Washington and Wall Street. Aside from the potential profitability in seasonal patterns, there’s the pure joy of seeing the market very often do just what you expected.
The Stock Trader’s Almanac is also an organizer. Its wealth of information is presented on a calendar basis. The Almanac puts investing in a business framework and makes investing easier because it:
- Updates investment knowledge and informs you of new techniques and tools.
- Is a monthly reminder and refresher course.
- Alerts you to both seasonal opportunities and dangers.
- Furnishes a historical viewpoint by providing pertinent statistics on past market performance.
- Supplies forms necessary for portfolio planning, record keeping, and tax preparation.
The WITCH icon signifies THIRD FRIDAY OF THE MONTH
on calendar pages and alerts you to extraordinary volatility due to the expiration of equity and index options and index futures contracts. Triple-witching days appear during March, June, September, and December. Some readers have questioned why we do not use the term “quadruple witching,” as some in the business do. As we point out on page 106 the market for single-stock and ETF futures remains small and their impact is virtually nonexistent. If and when single-stock futures trading volume expands and exerts influence on the market, we will reconsider. Until such time, we do not believe the term “quadruple witching” is applicable.
The BULL icon on calendar pages signifies favorable trading days based on the S&P 500 rising 60% or more of the time on a particular trading day during the 21-year period January 2000 to December 2020.
The BEAR icon on calendar pages signifies unfavorable trading days based on the S&P falling 60% or more of the time for the same 21-year period.
Also, to give you an even greater perspective, we have listed next to the date every day that the market is open the Market Probability numbers for the same 21-year period for the Dow (D), S&P 500 (S), and NASDAQ (N). You will see a “D,” “S”
and “N” followed by a number signifying the actual Market Probability number for that trading day based on the recent 21-year period. On pages 123–130 you will find complete Market Probability Calendars, both long term, and 21-year for the Dow, S&P, and NASDAQ, as well as for the Russell 1000 and Russell 2000 indices.
Other seasonalities near the ends, beginnings, and middles of months; options expirations, around holidays, and other times are noted for Almanac investors’ convenience on the weekly planner pages. All other important economic releases are provided in the Strategy Calendar every month in our e-newsletter, Almanac Investor, available at our website www.stocktradersalmanac.com.
One-year seasonal pattern charts for the Dow, S&P 500, NASDAQ, Russell 1000, and Russell 2000 appear on pages 42, 44, and 46. There are three charts each for the Dow and S&P 500 spanning our entire database starting in 1901 and one each for the younger indices. As 2022 is a midterm election year, each chart contains typical midterm election year performance compared to all years.
The Russell 2000 is an excellent proxy for small- and mid-caps, and the Russell 1000 provides a broader view of large caps. Annual highs and lows for all five indices covered in the Almanac appear on pages 151–155. The top 10 best and worst days, weeks, months, quarters, and years for all five indices are listed on pages 172–181.
We have converted many of the paper forms in our “Strategy and Record”
section into computer spreadsheets for our own internal use. As a service to our faithful readers, we are making these forms available at our website www
Midterm election years have historically been the second-worst year of the four-year cycle over multiple time frames. And they have been atrocious for first-year democrats with an average loss of –0.2% for DJIA (see our 2022 Outlook on pages 8–9 for more). You can find all the market charts of midterm election years since the Depression on page 26, “Midterm Election Years: Where Bottom Pickers Find Paradise” on page 28, “Prosperity More Than Peace Determines the Outcome of Midterm Congressional Races” on page 30, “Why A 50% Gain in the Dow Is Possible From Its 2022 Low to Its 2023 High” on page 34, and “Midterm Election Time Unusually Bullish” on page 104.
Our 2022 Outlook on pages 10–11 projects a more cautious position than last year. “How to Trade Best Months Switching Strategies” appears on page 38.
“Summer Market Volume Doldrums Drives Worst Six Months” is updated on page 50. Sector seasonalities, including several consistent shorting opportunities, appear on pages 94–98. On page 80 we have included some sage advice from an old friend and market legend in “Marty Zweig’s Investing Rules.”
We are constantly searching for new insights and nuances about the stock market and welcome any suggestions from our readers.
Have a healthy and prosperous 2022!
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Stock Trader's Almanac 2022 PDF
|October 26, 2021
Stock Trader's Almanac 2022 By Jeffrey Hirsch PDF Free Download - Epicpdf
Created by Yale Hirsch in 1967, the Stock Trader's Almanac has delivered money-making insights and strategies to investors for more than six decades. The Almanac originated such important market phenomena as the "January Barometer" and the "Santa Claus Rally" and was instrumental in popularizing other tradable strategies, such as "The Best Six Months Strategy" (commonly known as "Sell in May and Go Away") and the four-year Presidential Election Cycle.
Author: JEFFREY HIRSCH